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A Transfer of Agricultural Practices from North to Equatorial Regions as a Way to Mitigate Abrupt Sunlight Reduction Scenarios Effects on Crops

  • A. Turchin, D. Denkenberger
Pre-print available online from:
07 October 2025

Summary

Northern agricultural practices including cold-hardy crops and simple frost protection techniques could help tropical regions maintain food production during sunlight-blocking catastrophes.

Abrupt Sunlight Reduction Scenario (ASRS), Nuclear winter, Agricultural Resilience, Crop relocation

Abstract

In the event of a nuclear or volcanic winter up to two-thirds of sunlight could be blocked (abrupt sunlight reduction scenarios, ASRS), leading to a worldwide crop failure. There are some similarities between such effects and the short Northern summer. This suggests a possibility to transfer successful agricultural practices validated in high latitudes to tropical regions, especially low-tech solutions which can be more easily implemented in the case of a global catastrophe. We show that equatorial regions’ temperatures under a 150 Tg (millions of tonnes of soot to the stratosphere) scenario of nuclear winter (around 15°C average) are similar to summer temperatures in Northern-European regions of the former Soviet Union which had functional agriculture. We identified the following main agricultural technologies which can be adapted: (a) Cold-tolerant crops, first of all potatoes, but also rutabaga and fodder beet. (b) Frost-protection technologies (night-covering, watering, bottles with water). (c) Silage production in pits for animal feeding. (d) Low-labor-demanding crops. Quick scaling of new crops would be easier with low labor-demanding crops which also forgive mistakes in cultivation. The weather during ASRS could be much more unpredictable than current weather. One meta lesson is making several bets of different food-producing technologies in the situation of risky agricultural practices.

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