Expansion of Cropland Area During an Abrupt Sunlight Reduction Scenario
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L. L. Monteiro, M. Hinge, M. Rivers, S. Blouin, J. D. van der Walt, D. Denkenberger
Summary
In the event of a major volcanic eruption or nuclear war that reduces sunlight and decreases crop yields, converting shrubland, young secondary forests, and other non-cropland areas into cropland could help mitigate mass starvation. Three land-clearing scenarios suggest that expanding cropland could meet between 9% and 34% of the global calorie requirement within the first year, while sparing old-growth forests to limit biodiversity loss and prevent species extinction.
Abstract
In case of an abrupt-sunlight-reduction scenario, the accumulation of particles in the stratosphere would block sunlight, severely reducing temperatures and decreasing crop yields. Mass starvation could be prevented with the help of resilient foods, like proteins produced from methane, and sugar extracted from wood. In this paper, expansion of cropland area by converting other types of land into land that could be cultivated as a food resilient solution is explored. For a 150 tera-grams soot injection, approximately 1.45 billion hectares would be fit for cropland expansion. Three land-clearing scenarios were explored: the global-equipment-sharing scenario, the no-equipment-trade scenario, and the export-pool-equipment-trade scenario, which meet 34%, 9%, and 13% of the global calorie requirement by the end of the first year, respectively. This work shows the potential to mitigate starvation in catastrophes, with limited impacts on biodiversity by sparing old-growth forests and preventing hunting species to extinction.