Cropland expansion in a nuclear winter with loss of industry
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L. L. Monteiro, M. Hinge, S. Blouin, D. Denkenberger
Summary
Using draught animals to cultivate existing farmland and expand cropland during an extreme 150 Tg nuclear winter could produce enough food to feed over half the global population by the fourth year of the catastrophe, even without fertilizers or mechanized equipment.
Abstract
An abrupt-sunlight-reduction scenario combined with a catastrophic collapse of electricity/industry has the potential to disrupt food production and distribution worldwide, creating widespread food insecurity. This paper explores the potential of animal draught power to cultivate current cropland and expand cropland area in each country with winter wheat during an abrupt-sunlight-reduction scenario with global collapse of industry. For a 150 tera-gram soot injection with no fertiliser application, country-level allocation of draught animals allows for the global cultivation of over 700 million hectares (Mha) of current cropland, and expansion of global cropland area by 120 Mha, mostly focused in tropical regions of the globe. Over the course of seven years, over 8.3 billion tons of wheat are produced globally, 25% of which is fed to working animals, while the remaining surplus is used to meet human calorie demand. Although enough wheat is eventually produced to meet 80% of the human global calorie demand, animal demand and trade collapse only makes it possible to meet 30% of the global calorie demand. This presents outdoor agriculture and cropland expansion as viable and sustainable methods to mitigate starvation and prevent animal extinction in a catastrophe in some select countries.