Systemic, cascading, and compound risks
Perhaps the greatest threat we face isn’t one of the catastrophes listed here, but a combination of such threats.
We live in a complex, interconnected world with many vulnerabilities, and disasters can negatively affect multiple aspects of our systems.
For example, though extreme solar storms, such as the Carrington Event in 1859, are unlikely to cause GCIL directly, they could cause widespread temporary electrical outages, which could cascade into additional consequences.
Risk factors
A stressor becomes a risk factor or threat multiplier if it exacerbates other threats. One example of a risk factor is climate change. For example, droughts and high temperatures are expected to be deadly on their own, but they will also increase the numbers of refugees seeking asylum in countries with more food.
Another example of a risk factor is artificial intelligence. Rapid AI progress may result in powerful systems capable of heightening nuclear tensions, accelerating arms races, and increasing miscalculation risks. This may also lower barriers to engineering bioweapons, worsening pandemic threats. It may additionally lower barriers to more powerful cyberattacks for large-scale critical infrastructure disruption. Leading AI scientists are now calling for stronger action on AI risks from world leaders, citing these concerns.
Most catastrophic risks come with the threat of triggering further catastrophes if we don’t address them quickly and effectively.
Complex systems and cascading disasters
For many years, scientists considered the impacts of hazards and disasters individually, but there’s a growing recognition that disasters can often occur at the same time or trigger other disasters. For example, droughts are often accompanied by heat waves, while earthquakes often trigger deadly tsunamis. A megatsunami, triggered by a large earthquake or massive landslide, could destroy many ports fundamental to global food trade.
As COVID-19 swept across the globe, many countries in Africa, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia were also in the midst of one of the worst outbreaks of locust swarms in decades. The compounding effect of the global response to COVID-19 (i.e., lockdowns and restriction of movement of workers) and the locust swarms together increased global food stress far more than either event on its own might have done.